So I'm thinking about writing my last name as Linnē from now on, to try and help people know how to say it...
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at some point, it will happen. it's inevitable.
diving right into the point: i don't want to be perfect.
could you imagine the pressure of being perfect? having to meet everyone's needs and expectations all the time? it would be impossible. I can never truly be all things to all people. And if I was some kind of perfect, then there's a chance that people might want to be in relationship with me because of my perfection, not because of who I am.
so, to be frank, I will disappoint you. and in that moment, our relationship gets to take an interesting twist: will you give me grace or not? will you choose to still love me in my imperfection?
Ashley and I lead a small group together. We do our best to teach the things we think are important and applicable to our lives and the lives of the members of our little community. Somewhere down the line, I'm going to disappoint them. I'm not going to give the right advice or I'm going to have a lame week.
In some ways, I'm excited for that day. I'm excited for the time when the community will be able to minister in love and grace to Ashley and I even in our failure.
I have friends who are so much more loyal to me than I deserve. I should call them, I should write them, I should carve out a spot of time for them, just for them. But I don't always get to meet their needs (or even their wants). I disappoint them. And, in the hubbub and business of daily life, human desire for rest, and investment into entertainment I will disappoint them again - and maybe disappoint you.
My wife and I have an incredible relationship. But, there are times - and there will be times - when I will disappoint her. I won't smile wide enough when she looks beautiful, I won't hear the true meaning of some deep statement, I won't say "I love you" in the right way. Or worse, I'll due something truly harmful to us and her.
But, even in that disappointment, we will relish in the oppertunity for grace. If I was perfect, if she never had the blessing of an oppertunity to unconditionally give me grace, it would be unfair to her. I hope it's only in little ways, but there needs to be times when I disappoint her so she can love me irregardless.
Disappointment is so very, very key in the life of a follower of the Way. What happens when someone disappoints you?
Do you gossip about them? Do you tear them apart in your head? Do you decide that this disappointing moment is the defining moment of their character, even against years of knowledge otherwise? Can this disappointment be sustained and become the new lens you view your once treasured relationship through?
Or do we forgive this sin against our expectations for someone else? Maybe we see a new side to someone we thought we knew so well, and are justified in our righteous judgment. Would it not be so much more valuable to give grace to them? Don't they need that more than they need a broken friendship?
Oh, how I will disappoint you. It will happen when I don't want it to, I'm sure. You'll need me and my friendship and my love and mentorship and grace more than ever before... but I won't be there. Or I'll say the wrong thing. Or, for some reason - maybe I just didn't realize how important this one thing was? - maybe I just won't even care. And I'll forget this post, I'll forget about love and grace, and then I'll disappoint you.
Will you give me grace?
Or will you disappoint me, tit for tat? Will you hold it against me, that I'm not perfect. Will my one wrong comment wrong our relationship forever more? Will my uncensored emotional outburst break down what we've built over coffees and dinners and prayers? Will my passive agression lead to a weak thought that cannot be forgiven?
I know I'll disappoint you. And I know you've been disappointed. And you know who you will disappoint.
Can we move past that, and see it not as some selfish wound, but a chance to love and give grace? A chance to let the disappointment be tossed aside for a chance to share in a moment of growth? A chance to practice loving unconditionally, just as He loves us?
And if you don't, if you can't, or if you disappoint... that's ok. I'll do my best to love you irregardless.
And may you forgive me if I still disappoint you.
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Craig Webb is the internet producer for LifeWay, and works just down the hall from me. Every couple of weeks he calls me into his office to check out the PowerPoint presentation he's putting together for his pastors. This week - for Easter - he's got a PowerPoint and sermon outline called "I am the Light."
Craig and I are planning on some collaboration in the future with some creative elements that I might be able to contribute from the digital media side of things. Inspired by the title (but mostly unrelated to the content of his lesson), I pulled together this piece of spoken word just to jumpstart the creative juices a bit.
I've been mostly dealing with other people's work or been entrenched in MBA work lately, so jamming out a little something was quite a bit fun. Here's to hoping that once this final MBA capstone course completes, I'll be able to start back up on the novel and such.
I've found an excellent tool for helping when I write poetry/spoken word where rhyming and cadence are important:
Microsoft Excel.
I write one syllable into each cell so I can easily see where the pace is, and easily see when the rhyme needs to come up. Ah, finding the creative in the completely mundane.
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I just finished up my first Futures related article that will see print. Written for Deacon Magazine by LifeWay, the article covers the very basics of Futures research and study: why we should do it and a few short paragraphs on how. I would love to push out the "how" a little further, but I was limited to 1200 words (I wrote over 1400, like usual). Here's to hoping this article makes and impact and helps get the church thinking/talking about what the future might be.
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One of our good friends, Lindsey, is applying for a summer internship. She asked my wife and I to write one of her letters of recommendation because we're her small group leaders... so we get to be her "clergy." I seldom get the chance to sit down and process into words - using my style, cliches and idioms - to get to write about one of my friends. I think this is a process that we should go through more often, as it lets you realize things about your friends and community that you may not have put into language before.
There's nothing here that I didn't instinctively know that I felt/thought about Lindsey... but I know I've never communicated them before and I know that Lindsey probably has no idea what she means to Ashley and I. So, if you would indulge me, I'd like you to meet a woman named Lindsey:
In short, Lindsey is someone we hope to always have in our lives.
Sure, that might sound over-dramatic for a simple letter of recommendation, but it’s the truth and needs to be said. After you get to meet her and know her, you’ll be saying the same thing.
Lindsey first crossed paths with my wife and I at our church’s small group that we lead. She came with one of her best friends and instantly became a solid, dependable, and appreciated contributor to the group. She’s has always been transparent and always been honest. And in the time that we’ve known her, she has grown in maturity and relationships to become a young adult who, in all honesty, will change someone’s world.
I don’t know that Lindsey cares to change the whole world. I don’t know that she has the lofty dreams to bring world peace or end world hunger (though I’m sure she’d love to be involved an organization that could). Instead, I think she want to make impacts on a personal level. She wants to develop true trust and true relationships. Then she’ll pull you along side her and change other people’s worlds together.
Yet even with all of her knowledge and charisma, Lindsey retains humility and a thirst for knowledge. She still comes to our church’s small group, taking in whatever nuggets of wisdom are tossed about. She is currently serving as our social services coordinator, where she plans activities for our group to serve the community. Most importantly, her presence in the group brings a continual smile to all involved.
I have no doubt that whatever task Lindsey applies herself to she will succeed. She is a determined soul and will seek out whatever experience or knowledge she needs to accomplish the task. If she can’t acquire the necessary tools, then it won’t take her long to make a friend who will fill in those gaps. She is great at pulling people together and working for something better than themselves.
Lindsey has become a part of my wife and I’s lives and we are better for it. My only hesitation in recommending Lindsey to you is that she’d be away from our flow of life for the summer.
If you choose to bring Lindsey on board with the program, you will need to give her a great placement with a great task, else you will be squandering her abilities. I have no doubt that she will astound you as she has astounded us.
I don't get angry very often. I don't get frustrated. I typically am able to process through whatever is happening at the moment, analyze various perspectives, and work through the fact that whatever ails me is temporary and there is often a better way to handle the situation.
I'm currently coming down off of a rush of adrenaline, determination, frustration and a touch of anger. I'm sleepy, but I want to get these thoughts out.
If someone doesn't understand instructions, that's ok. If someone misreads their assignment, it's forgivable. If said person is corrected and told specifically what they did wrong and how to correct it and - instead of doing the right thing - they makes the exact same mistake again... that leads to frustration. Instead of throwing my hands in the air and submitting to defeat in the name of "it's not fair that I have to do her work," I plowed through and completed the project as best as I could. That's the lesson I'll remember from this course.
So how do I deal with potentially frustrating situations? A simple three step process of decision and elimination.
When presented with a problem I go through this process, internally:
(1) Do I have any influence over this situation?
If the situation is completely out of my control, then what can I do? Any anger or aggression simply will serve to tense up my muscles and cause negative thoughts to flow into mind. I have too many thoughts and projects in my head as it is; I have no need to hold on to anger or bitterness.
If the situation is out of my control but effects those around me, I file away the memory. My first response should not be to the situation, but to the person whose life intersects with mine. If they need me to be angry, then I'll share their anger (so that they don't have to hold on to so much of it). If they need me to remind them of grace, I gently nudge that direction. I've found that people prefer to share in anger than be reminded of grace.
If I do have influence over the situation, then I ask:
(2) How much energy will I need to exert to modify the situation?
Everything we do requires energy, and I only have so much of it. I can choose to use my energy to love or to hate, to be productive or put it into reserve and rest. Before I can make any of those decisions on a situation, I have to discern how much energy it will take to influence the situation.
If the energy it would take isn't worth my time to change, then it isn't worthy my time to be angry about. Seriously; if I don't care enough to change it, why should I care enough to be angry?
If I do decide it's worth changing the situation:
(3) Follow through and work towards change.
This is the big one, where energy is spent and you're committed to holding on to the memory of frustration to propel you through the turbulence of the situation. The key is that deciding you're going to change something isn't the whole story. You have to actually exert the energy until one of two things happen: (a) the situation changes, or (b) you decide that exerting the energy is no longer worth it, and re-evaluate step 2.
If after this I'm still angry and frustrated, then I need to do some internal monologuing. I have to ask: why am I angry? Is this a good anger (yes, there is good anger) and good pain (yes, there is good pain)?
Or am I harboring selfish frustration and expecting some kind of response from other people to make up for my hurt? If that's the case then I'd rather just be honest with people and say "I need love" rather than push away what I need with visible anger and frustration.
If I'm still holding to this anger... if I've decided that it's a good element to hold on to... then I do so in prayer. I keep watch over it by asking God to hold it in check and remind me of when it's time to let it go. I try to share my anger with others because some might share the burden while others might remind me of grace.
And then there's that one left over element of anger and frustration, where I want to turn it into a teaching moment for the offender. There's the part of me that wants to send her work tot he professor and let him know how "above and beyond" I went for my group. The reason isn't vengeance, but because I truly think that if someone got into a graduate program without knowing how to write a research paper... someone needs to wake them up a bit.
But that's not my job, it's the professor's. So instead I get to turn this into a teaching moment for myself and spell out a few of my thoughts. Hello, thoughts.
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I'm approaching the end of my MBA. At this point, I expect that my fellow classmates have taken a few courses and have, at least written a few research papers in their academic career. So, knowing my own skills with writing and the level of academia I bring to the team, I assume the best of my peers.
A common thread in online courses is the team project. Whether it be something abstract or something concrete - like a research paper - the largest grade in most of your classes will be dependant upon the work of other people. In one course I'm in my group had seven people... which results in mass confusion trying to get things organized. It also means you have a myriad of personalities... some aggressive (I was called out in the class for not having turned my section of a report in... four days before it was due...) and some never showing up to work.
But this story is about my other class, where I have three other people in the group with me. Because it's smaller, we got to learn a little bit more about each other and have all kinds of fun conflict. It's a course on global studies, so it's only appropriate that I learned a global lessons:
Not all countries consider a research paper to be the same thing. So when you sit down to compile everyone's portions and three are the common American way you and I would think a research paper should be... and then the fourth section is an outline with data points... how do you make it work?
I think it's lessons like these that make persuing a formal education worthwhile. I could read dozens of business text books and gleam knowledge from them. But interaction - and the dreaded group project - helps focus that learning into something tangible.
In the real business world, if you're on a team (or a manager of a team) and someone does something totally different than what's expected, or their work simply doesn't match the work that everyone else is doing... how do you compensate? If it's something that you thought was so clear that not defining words need to be given (do a research paper) and you get back something totally... just... not on the mark... is it your fault for not better describing the task, or the person who missed the mark's fault for not understanding the task?
So, being the one to compile the paper, I was presented with an option. Do I (a) rewrite the outlined data into a paper, (b)request that the author make it right, or (c) simply put it in as-is, suffer the grade, and complain to the professor?
I've chosen a combination of (a) and (b). I've contacted the author and requested the changes. However, we're on a super tight schedule... we have to turn it in tomorrow. As such, I'm taking my laptop with me and - if I don't hear a response by lunch - I know what I'll be doing tomorrow night.
The option of turning it in inaccurate or just complaining to the professor is simply not an acceptable solution. At the workplace if something isn't right and you have a chance to fix it but don't... then you're just as much in the wrong as the person whose error it truly was. The trickling of blame simply isn't acceptable if yuo have the means to catch the error and correct it.
This is one of the reasons I'm on such a mentoring kick. I want to hear stories of other people's victories and mistakes so I, too, can learn from them. What is the point of folly or success if there is no one to share it with?
I have one class left in MBA, and it starts next week. When we get to the group project, you can rest assured that I will make sure that the style and expectations of the paper are made clear to the group. And so, a little learning lesson about miscommunication of teamwork goes in my picket of life.
P.S. Did I mention the author got the assignment mixed up, and wrote not only the section assigned to them, but the section assigned to me as well? The author, by the end of the project, will have likely done more work than anyone else, all because of misunderstanding the assignment.
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Way back in June of 2007, I was contracted to write an article for Deacon Magazine. LifeWay works on a very far ahead schedule for their magazines and that first article I was contracted for should be out this coming quarter's edition of the magazine.
Mid-January I was contracted to write for Collide Magazine. A couple of days ago, Scott McCellan announced on the Collide blog that the March/April issue of the magazine (with my article on multi-site church technology in it) went to press. It's exciting to finally know that a piece that I worked on is on it's way in the mail to my hands. Hooray! You can subscribe to the magazine here.
In other freelance news, Deacon Magazine has contracted me for a Futures-related article. This is incredibly exciting for me as Futures research for the church/technology is where I'm heading a few years down the road. I'm in the Futures degree program at University of Houston, so it's pretty awesome to be able to write about the topic already. Not sure how I'll crush my thoughts down to 1200 words... but we'll see how it goes!
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As I’m starting to wrap up my MBA, I’m moving to that weird stage in life where I feel the need to start planning some things out. My wife and I are planning on having our credit card debt finished this year. We’re looking at having kids in 2010 (so far away, yet so close). I absolutely love my current job, but I’m always thinking about the next step. But what’s next in the career of a Christian?
continued
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There are reasons throughout life that you may remember a meal.
I remember my first meal with Ashley at Caffeine when she flew in to visit back in 2004. I remember our feast at the Mad Platter from Kelley's generosity. I remember going to Chuck E. Cheese for me 18th's birthday. I remember many more...
all of those memories are surrounded with people or events or things of the like (which are very, incredibly, extremely important and is one of the keys to life, imho).
The meal I had last night, however, I'll remember for the taste.
Yes, it was that good. Ashley and I, for Valentine's decided to have a "fancy" night out, and went to the Standard Restaurant here in Nashville. And it was good.
I really don't know how to explain how good the meal was. It was full of flavor and quality. Ashley - who often does not like to eat red meat - loved the beef fillet. My bbq shrimp were the biggest pieces of shrimp i've ever had.
The meal was a five-course meal (plus bread). One of the courses was a cheese course, wherein I had a plate full of baked brie. I do mean a plate full. And who know that cheese went with roasted walnuts? But man, it was good.
I have only two complaints:
(1) The food was too good. Seriously. It makes you think that maybe you should eat fancy more often. I don't think we can afford the extravagence more than once a year, though. But it did help me understand food snobs a bit more. Seriously, this stuff made Applebee's seem like McDonald's.
(2) There was too much food. The Valentine's Day Special was a five-course meal... and it was a FULL five courses. I expected them to pull back on their portions so that you could make it through... but I had to send the majority of my entree's sides back. It was tormentuous, because the sides were so good... but there was no way I could push down any more.
So yes, the Standard Restaurant wins. It beat my taste buds into submission and became my own personal standard for what quality, tasteful food is.
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A few weeks ago, Ashley and I watched one of the most beautiful movies about relationships I've watched. The intimacy and character development between Glenn and Marketa in this movie is simply stunning. And the character development is almost as good as the music.
The movie is called "Once," and it's basically a vehicle for Glenn Hansard to play his music in a movie. The relationship portrayed in the movie is just quirky enough to be real, and is one of the few times I've been drawn into the discovery as well. The movie was able to show the hesitation and awkardness that comes with discovering the life of someone else so well, romantically or not.
The conflict of the relationship is handled so well, too.
The movie isn't a happy-ever-after romantic comedy, but it does such a good job at exploring relationships that I think anyone who care about discovering another person should take the time out to experience the music and story of Once.
(Ashley and I rented it via Amazon Unbox, and the quality was actually quite good! If you've got a computer hooked up to the TV or can stream it somehow, try watching it that way. The rental is only $2(!)... hooray for cheap, deep dates!)
(Seriously, only $2? It's worth it for the music alone. Glenn's music is simply stellar.)
(I should probably give Andy props for introducing me to Glenn's music... thanks, Andy!)
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We left our hope with Jesus, amidst the news that our dear friend Lazarus was sick. The truth of it is, Lazarus had died. He was sick, and Jesus just kind of... hung out. There was no rushing wind to save his life. There was no hope offered to the situation. Jesus did not react like anyone would have wanted Him to. When Jesus found out Lazarus was sick, he didn't not leave because he was busy with something else. he didn't not leave because it was a dangerous trip. He did not leave BECAUSE Lazarus was sick. The HCSB translates John 11:6 as:
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"So when He heard that he was sick, He stayed two more days in the place where He was."Mary and Martha wanted hope, they desired love. They made a plan - seek out Jesus - and he didn't not come to their add at a moment's notice. He waited. But then... then, there was hope:
“Our friend Lazarus has fallen asleep; but I am going there to wake him up.”John 11:11Jesus decides it is time to act. The disciples are nervous... it's a dangerous trip to visit their destination (Judea) because the last time they were there, there was an attempt to stone Jesus. They think they are going to wake up a sleeping man, but Christ clarifies: they are going to go and wake the dead.Jesus arrives, and is strong for Mary and Martha. He seeks out their faith, almost testing them. The time has come for Christ to heal his friend and - before he even gets to the actual tomb, as he comes upon the location, we have one of the most memorized passages in the Bible:
"Jesus wept."John 11:35What was His emotions at this point. Christ waited, letting his friend die. Christ's best friends essentially say they expected more of him ("if only you had been here"). And Christ, in his infinite wisdom, knew the danger, the excitement, and the torment He was about to unleash upon the crowd... and upon Lazarus.Lazarus was dead. Jesus knows what's on the other side of death... whether it is Abraham's Bosom or Paradise or Purgatory or nothing until the resurrection... Jesus knew what He was bringing Lazarus back from. Lazarus would breathe again, but he would also feel pain again, one day, ultimately, die again.
Then Jesus said, “Did I not tell you that if you believed, you would see the glory of God?”So they took away the stone. Then Jesus looked up and said, “Father, I thank you that you have heard me. I knew that you always hear me, but I said this for the benefit of the people standing here, that they may believe that you sent me.”When he had said this, Jesus called in a loud voice, “Lazarus, come out!” The dead man came out, his hands and feet wrapped with strips of linen, and a cloth around his face. Jesus said to them, “Take off the grave clothes and let him go.”John 11:40-44And that's the end. That's all we know. We don't have Lazarus thanking Jesus. We don't have Mary and Martha thanking Jesus. We don't have a recorded, personal moment of introspection or of joy or of life. Just "let him go."Why? Why is it like this?Jesus gave hope. He answered the prayer. I don't think he was simply healing a dead man. He was healing a family. He gave hope. I believe that's all He ever wanted to give.What about our friends Caleb and Joshua? They had hope of a promised land. Of twelve who went to scout the land, only these two believed it was theirs. They came to lead Isreal and the time was right to now take the land. They spied on the ihabitants, and found them afraid. They met a lady name Rahab, who would be included in the lineage of Christ. They had faith; and the people now had faith in God.The priests were sent first, carrying the Ark of the covenant. The were walking straight towards a flooding Jordan river. And once all their feet were in the water, not a moment before, the river stopped and the priests and warriors together crossed over to Jericho.
So when the people broke camp to cross the Jordan, the priests carrying the ark of the covenant went ahead of them. Now the Jordan is at flood stage all during harvest. Yet as soon as the priests who carried the ark reached the Jordan and their feet touched the water's edge, the water from upstream stopped flowing. It piled up in a heap a great distance away, at a town called Adam in the vicinity of Zarethan, while the water flowing down to the Sea of the Arabah (the Salt SeaThat is, the Dead Sea) was completely cut off. So the people crossed over opposite Jericho. The priests who carried the ark of the covenant of the LORD stood firm on dry ground in the middle of the Jordan, while all Israel passed by until the whole nation had completed the crossing on dry ground.Joshua 3:14-17Joshua and Caleb had hope. Mary and Martha were without their brother for four days. Joshua, Caleb, and the nation of Isreal were without their promised land for forty years.And what of Jesus? What hope did he find?When we left His struggle for hope, He had returned home and His childhood, adolescent, and twenty-somethings young adult friends offered Him no grand homecoming. They offered Him no faith or hope; just a lack of belief and a lack of miracles. Where did He find hope? Then Jesus' mother and brothers arrived. Standing outside, they sent someone in to call him.
32A crowd was sitting around him, and they told him, “Your mother and brothers are outside looking for you.” “Who are my mother and my brothers?” he asked.Then he looked at those seated in a circle around him and said, “Here are my mother and my brothers. Whoever does God's will is my brother and sister and mother.” Mark 3: 31-35, also Matt 12:46-50, also Luke 8:19-21.Christ's hopes, His family and loved ones were not his blood relatives, simply because they were blood they were His chosen family, the people who did God's will. Christ's hope was in his small group. His hope was in His community of believers. His hope was in His bride, the church.And their hope, our hope, is in him:
Then Thomas (called Didymus) said to the rest of the disciples, “Let us also go, that we may die with him.”John 11:16
When I was working for Fuge, I used to go around to all the major camp sites and help set up the lighting and sound at each location. It was during one of these trips that I got to meet a simply great band, Addison Road. Their music was unique, Jenny had a great voice, and they were genuinely caring people, living a great balance of life, rock & roll, and ministry. I still remember smiling at the young love so unashamedly shown between Jenny and her husband, Ryan.
A few months later I got to work on the youth VBS project for LifeWay. It was on a shoestring budget, but they wanted to do something cool and high-quality. I was able to connect with a few of my musician friends and we ended up putting together what was basically an indie Christian CD that was included in every member book for the students that year. One of the five groups that agreed to be a part of the project was, of course, Addison Road. Back then I knew they were on the brink of being break out stars.This week, Addison Road is the featured iTunes giveaway. All the millions of people who hit the iTunes Store this week will get a chance to download their new single, All That Matters, for free. Make sure you jump in there and download it as well; I promise you, they're an awesome band.
And, as a throwback, here's the video that Jeff Lyons shot for the VBS disc with the band.
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A while back, I got to meet with David Webb about the B&H pitching process. Our conversation back then really turned into a "get-to-know-you" meeting, and we talked a lot about the Christian Fiction market, what his job was, who some of the new authors were, etc etc. The information he was sharing - as well as his passion for Christian Fiction - seemed to me to be something that anyone interested in Christian fiction might want to know. How often do you get a chance to sit down with one of the top guys in the business?
The video is also a lot of fun because you get a peek into David's mind as to how the whole process works, and how involved an editor might be in a story (David talks about how one time a story really needed a character to die...). David also talks a bit about upcoming books by authors Jamie Carie, Leanna Ellis, and Rebecca Seitz.
So, without further ado, here's a video conversation with David Webb.
[kyte.tv appKey=MarbachViewerEmbedded&embedId=10054074&uri=channels/30228/96816]
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encouraged by finding the right formula and the brief distraction of writing a blog post, i put on the most sugar-y sweet happy music I have, and went to town to solve the problem.
i realized that it was similar to a problem I had posted to our class discussion board earlier in the week, so i check it... and noticed that I had done root-mean square (the forecast check to determine how accurate your forcast is) wrong. So I happily fixed it. Yeah, score extra points before it's graded.
so I get back to working at the problem at hand... and noticed something else.
when you're doing an exponential smoothing forecast, you have several elements. let's take a look at the formula:
Ft+1 =wAt + (1 - w)Ft
Essentially, Ft+1 is what you're solving for... it's the forecast for the next year. For example, you might be trying to find what the forecast would be for the year 2000. To find it you have three elements:
1) w: w is for a weight that you choose, between 0 and 1. The point of this weight is to determine how much "weight" you're giving to the forecast from real data and forecasted data.
2) At: a is for the Actual amount from the year you are using to solve the forecast. If you were trying to forecast for 2000, you would use the actual data for the year 1999.
3) Ft: f is for the Forecast you previously did to solve the current forecast. Again, if you were trying to forecast for 2000, you would use the forecast data for the year 1999.
so what did i do wrong?
well, when you have a set of actual data, you start at the beginning and forecast through all the years you have leading up to the coming year that you're going to forecast for. you do this so in the end you can check the root-mean square and find out how accurate your forecast is. well, you have to start somewhere so, to get the very first Ft, you just take an average of all the real data you have.
when i originally solved the problem, I used the average every time instead of the previous forecast.
but, that wasn't the end of my troubles.
because of the way I wrote out the problem, using a grid, i ended up using the WRONG FORMULA. i was doing this:
Ft+1 =wAt+1 + (1 - w)Ft
sigh. so... i finally found all my errors (as far as I can tell) my fourth time through. the good thing about this is I'll never forget this experience and the frustration, but continual excitement at "getting it right". It's amazing that you can think you've got a problem right four times...
of course, from a psychological point of view, it makes you second guess yourself a lot and wonder how you got it wrong so many times. in something like this i have two options:
1) decide in my mind that i just am never going to understand it
2) decide in my mind that after four tries, my answer is correct and i have mastery over the subject (which is why i wrote this post... so i could prove to myself that I understand the concepts). if my answer is still wrong... at least I know my answer is more correct than my version 4 times ago.
which would you choose?
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My Managerial Economics in a Global Economy has been a fun venture so far. I'm enjoying getting to flex the math muscles of my brain that haven't been used in several years. Tonight, however, was a lesson in humility and common-sense stupidity.
I have just spent the last hour working on this problem:
Using the index (with 1985 = 100) on housing starts in the United States per year from 1986 to 1997 given in the table below, forecast the index for 1998 using a three year and a five year moving average. Which of your estimates is better if the actual index of housing starts in the United States for 1998 is 163?
I simply couldn't make the formula I was using help me with the problem. I was working through a trend projection formula. This isn't a trending question; it's a smoothing technique using moving averages.
I was four pages off in my book.
This past hour has really been a cathartic process for me. About 45 minutes in I was tempted to give up and just worry about it later. I persevered, reread all the info BEFORE the page with the trend projection formula, reread the entire previous chapter, and was just plain frustrated.
The fact of the matter is I've always done really well in school. I've always gotten good grades, great test scores, and generally can learn things pretty quickly. I can honestly say that I have never in my life been stumped on a question like this for more than 5-10 minutes (by "question like this" I mean one where I should be able to solve it, and have all the pertinent information available to me). It's not often in life that we get to really feel a new experience.
At this moment I'm feeling very humbled. I've often relied on my intellect and gotten frustrated with people who don't want to learn new things... or that think they can't.
There was a brief moment in this hour-long misdirection of formulas that I wondered what the rest of the course would be like... could I handle having to process through hour-long problems all semester long. Would it be worth it, or could I take a different course? Could I, should I, give up?
It was a taste of intellectual defeat... and I didn't like it. But the alternative, giving up, would have been so very easy and appealing. And, ultimately, all I won myself from pushing through the issue was humility, a feeling of ignorance, and missing out on sitting on the couch, watching a movie with my beautiful wife. I can see how giving up not bothering with the problem would be more appealing and, in many ways, seem more beneficial.
This rests on my mind at the age of 27. I couldn't imagine the impact it might have on a 7 year old, or a 17 year old, or all the years in between.
I wonder when my children will hit this kind of wall. I wonder when the next time I'll have the answer just out of reach, only to learn that my own choices kept me from seeing it.
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a week or two ago I had a commenter on my futures page mention that he couldn't find a way to contact me. in doing the video interviews for LifeWay I've had two people so far volunteer their phone number for people to contact them. i've been inspired and decided to do the same.
my number, if you need to reach me, is 615-668-3123.
my email is aaron at aaronlinne.com
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i wrote a while back about mentoring. i wrote that i want a mentor, someone to help me grow and show interest in making me a better person. i hope that someday i can gush about a mentor like Scoble recently did on his blog:
http://scobleizer.com/2008/01/26/thank-you-yossi-vardi/
they don't have to be someone super-cool that can get me into net lunches or introduce me to fantastical people. but i do wish that i know someone who, if they came up to me while i was standing in line for a meal I already paid $80 dollars for, and said "follow me," i'd go in a heartbeat.
i guess, in many ways, i wish i had a rabbi.
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The most painful rejection happens at the worst times, by the people closest to you. It doesn't have to be some grand betrayal or some physical altercation. I think the level of pain is directly related to how deeply you know someone, and how deeply you think they know you.
Rejection from a spouse of eight years is more painful than breaking up with a fiance of eight months is more painful than not getting a call from a girlfriend of eight days. Getting fired from a job during the "trial" period is less dramatic than being cut off from a career of thrity years. A teenager feels more responsible for a father leaving a family than a toddler can even understand what is happening.And so, life comes and we grow up. In the American culture of the 21st century, we might graduate high school, go on to college or maybe get married, we become the leaders of our families. Yet, when we return home for holidays or go out to eat with our siblings... there is this tension of how things were and how things are.
If the tension is stressed, if the relationship breaks and if we are rejected by the people who know us the most... the people we grew up with, the neighbor pack of kids, our family, our loved ones... there is no more bitter pain than the people who know you the best telling you - whether it be vocally or through their actions - that you are rejected.
This isn't a new phenomenom. This is something that has gone on for years. As Christians, it is important to realize one key thing: we aren't alone in this feeling. This is something even Christ dealt with.
Perhaps we should look at Mark 6:
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1 He went away from there and came to His hometown, and His disciples followed Him. 2 When the Sabbath came, He began to teach in the synagogue, and many who heard Him were astonished. “Where did this man get these things?” they said. “What is this wisdom given to Him, and how are these miracles performed by His hands? 3 Isn’t this the carpenter, the son of Mary, and the brother of James, Joses, Judas, and Simon? And aren’t His sisters here with us?” So they were offended by Him. 4 Then Jesus said to them, “A prophet is not without honor except in his hometown, among his relatives, and in his household.”Christ was not expecting this. He was amazed at their unbelief. He didn't expect it and - if I might put a bit of imagination into it - he did not want to be rejected in this way. Chapter 6 immediately follows, obviously, chapter 5. In chapter 5 Christ healed a sick girl - so sick Jesus was told she was dead. Before that he met a woman whose faith led her to touch his robes, taking power from them. Before that he cast out the demon Legion. Before that, in chapter 4, he calms a storm and the waves. So going home you would think people would be happy to see you. But... they weren't. They rejected Christ and he felt rejected. These were the people he grew up with, who knew him day in and day out the past thirty years... and they made fun of him for it. How could Jesus be teaching and know such things... wasn't He just the son of Joseph? So maybe they were just friends. What about people who were sworn to protect your life, and you, theirs? What if you had fought battles together, time after time? And what if you and eleven of your best friends, people who would lay down their lives for you, were chosen to go and discover the future of your entire nation? Perhaps you ended up disagreeing and were in the minority. These are your best friends... surely you can solve the dispute civilly, right? Perhaps you are Caleb, and in the book of Numbers you report back to Moses and Aaron that the land flowing with milk and honey is a good land, and that your people can conquer it. Perhaps the whole community... your friends, your acquaintances, perhaps even your family members would decide that instead of listening to you, you should simply be killed instead (Numbers 14:10). This rejection, it is a hard pill to swallow.Our home might reject us. Our entire community might reject us. Surely, surely, Jesus would never reject us. He would have a warm heart and kind words to ease our troubles. He would come like a rushing wind to our aid. Christ is our redeemer, our Lord, our friend. We expect that when we call upon Him, He will intercede. He will make a change in our lives, or the lives we pray for. If you were some of his best friends, you could say something that would surely stir His soul to reaction: "Lord, the one you love is sick," was the message sent to Christ my Mary and Martha in John, chapter 11. But His response was not one of immediacy or comfort. Chapter 11, v6: So when He heard that he was sick, He stayed two more days in the place where He was. Mary and Martha went to Christ to heal Lazarus, and as far as they could tell, in that moment, He had rejected them. The most painful rejection comes from those who love us the most.
5 So He was not able to do any miracles there, except that He laid His hands on a few sick people and healed them. 6 And He was amazed at their unbelief.
As a part of my job at LifeWay, I get to work with placing our media on iTunes. Typically, I'm a bit at the back end of the process, loading things up once production on a disk is finished (this is going to change, soon). Back in December I got a frantic call about needing an ISRC code for the new Twila Paris CD that LifeWay was putting out.
Curious about such a large project for us, I began to ask around about who I could talk to about the album. Ended up that the best person for the job was Mike Harland - the director of LifeWay Worship. So not only was this the first time I've done a video interview with a director, it was the first time I did one with someone I had never met before.
[kyte.tv appKey=MarbachViewerEmbedded&uri=channels/30228/92557&embedId=10044691&locale=en]
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Curious about such a large project for us, I began to ask around about who I could talk to about the album. Ended up that the best person for the job was Mike Harland - the director of LifeWay Worship. So not only was this the first time I've done a video interview with a director, it was the first time I did one with someone I had never met before.
[kyte.tv appKey=MarbachViewerEmbedded&uri=channels/30228/92557&embedId=10044691&locale=en]