Way back in June of 2007, I was contracted to write an article for Deacon Magazine. LifeWay works on a very far ahead schedule for their magazines and that first article I was contracted for should be out this coming quarter's edition of the magazine.
Mid-January I was contracted to write for Collide Magazine. A couple of days ago, Scott McCellan announced on the Collide blog that the March/April issue of the magazine (with my article on multi-site church technology in it) went to press. It's exciting to finally know that a piece that I worked on is on it's way in the mail to my hands. Hooray! You can subscribe to the magazine here.
In other freelance news, Deacon Magazine has contracted me for a Futures-related article. This is incredibly exciting for me as Futures research for the church/technology is where I'm heading a few years down the road. I'm in the Futures degree program at University of Houston, so it's pretty awesome to be able to write about the topic already. Not sure how I'll crush my thoughts down to 1200 words... but we'll see how it goes!
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Today we released Max Lucado's 3:16 study for download in the LifeWay catalog. The videos are for Individual Use, which means they weigh in at a resolution of 418x240 (they are 16x9). The videos are based off of his new study about having hope in today's world, using the simple analogy of 3:16 hope in a 9/11 world.
One of the best things about the study is the bonus materials of people's testimonies on how Christ has effected their lives. We're still working on how to best deliver those materials via digital downloads, because they really would be best served for presentation in a large group setting. Hopefully we'll be able to work something out soon.
Also, the audio files from Beth Moore's A Heart Like His study were able to get out this wee. These are from a study she released in 1996 about David. Old materials, but still great Bible teaching. If the audios are released, I would imagine the videos might be following soon...
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One of the keys to hosting a successful meeting is knowing, upfront, what kind of meeting it is. Without the proper direction - and, thus, goals - a meeting can flounder and get nothing accomplished. Meetings can be very expensive for a company. It's always a motivator to look around a room and guesstimate how much an particular meeting is costing a company. If you are pulling coworkers away from their desk, be sure you at least know what you're pulling them away for.
Here are just a few of the types of meetings I've been a part of:
(1) The Discovery Meeting. This meeting has the most potential; the most potential for something to go wrong and the most potential for something great to happen. A discovery meeting is needed when a project is first getting off the ground. The goal of a discovery meeting is to find out who are the experts in the project, what the true scope of the project should be, and who is going to do what.
Leading a discovery meeting is a bit like being a coach. You know (hope) that you have all the right players on the team. In the few short minutes of the meeting you need to figure out where the players go on the field, and whether or not they are going to cooperate. Discovery meetings will often set the tone for the project going forward; if the meeting comes off as a mess, that impression will last with all the participants. If everyone can walk away feeling their time was well used, you'll be able to leverage their skills and abilities in the coming tasks for the meeting.
(2) The Informational Meeting. This meeting is usually chaired by the manager of a team or director of a division. The key is not for interaction, but instead for information assimilation. These meetings are often very costly due to the number of people in the audience, and the managers know that. In other words, you as a participant had better listen.
If a topic is covered at an informational meeting, be sure to remember it. Anything covered at an informational meeting is assumed to now be in your knowledge. If it's a divisional meeting and you didn't get to go (out sick?), be sure to get the notes - seriously! Being the only person on a floor not to know about a new project or time tracking rule can not only be embarassing, but seen as totally unprofessional. Careers are not high school where you can feign ignorance; it's your ownresponsibility to have the up-to-date information.
If you are in the position to be leading an informational meeting, remember that your participants (even though they should be listening) might not (probably aren't) listening. They are still processing through whatever work they left in their inbox. If you aren't asking for participation, they are going to disengage.
One final not to participants of informational meetings: if you have a genuine question about a topic covered at a meeting, you should follow up and ask it. It will show that you have an interest in the project and that you were one of the few people listening. If it's not a genuine question, don't; no need to be a suck up.
(3) The Working Meeting. This is the hard one. I've found that these actually come few and far at levels below management. If you're a working professional, you typically have a normal ebb and flow of work to do, whether alone or in a team. So when a working professional gets pulled into a working meeting, it's usually a bit of adjustment and we often come unprepared.
A working meeting is just that: thirty minutes to an hour to solve a problem. If the wrong people are in the room, oh well - there's no time to stop. Whoever is in the room will get the outgoing assignments. Whoever is in the room are the experts for the organization at that moment. Whoever is in the room will solve the problem. If you're in that room, enjoy the challenge and put a smile on your face.
A working meeting can be anything from hashing out taxonomy to deciding what a marketing message will be. The intent isn't simply to discover possibilities and then reconnect later, but it's to walk away with an answer to a problem. It's ok to walk away with new questions, but the initial problem must be solved, or at least have a tentative solution. Otherwise, the company just spent a lot of money on a conversation that should have just been had over email.
The problem, of course, is that working professionals usually get pulled into a working meeting and aren't prepared for it. This is where listening back in those informational meetings comes in handy. Keeping a finger on the pulse of the projects going on around you and their status will lend favor to you knowing when your expertise might be called upon.
These are just some of the general meeting types I've come across, but I wanted to go ahead and introduce the language that I'll be using in future posts. The key here is being able to sense what kind of meeting you're attending, or letting participants know what kind of meeting you're hosting. When people know what's expected, they will come to the table with the right mindset and, hopefully, the right goals in mind.
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As I’m starting to wrap up my MBA, I’m moving to that weird stage in life where I feel the need to start planning some things out. My wife and I are planning on having our credit card debt finished this year. We’re looking at having kids in 2010 (so far away, yet so close). I absolutely love my current job, but I’m always thinking about the next step. But what’s next in the career of a Christian?
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One of the great things about working for LifeWay is knowing that we reinvest so much time and talent into building missions oppertunities for churches across the nation, and maintaining relationships with cities across the country.
Because of the oppertunties that LifeWay organizes, youth groups and college students are able to go on short-term missions that have long-term missions impact. It's a great oppertunity for the participants to grow on a personal level, while still impacting the people and communities they come in contact with on a long term basis.
The first conversation I got to have was with Laurie Lee about the missions oppertunities that LifeWay provides for youth groups. Through FUGE Camps, students are able to participate in missions first hand, as well as give to a missions fund that provides for the cities FUGE Camps partners with long term. The video with Laurie is thirty minutes long, but if you choose to watch it you will see Laurie's passion for missions work just flow out of her. If you have an interest in short-term or long term missions, I would highly suggest you give it a listen.
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Last Friday I also got the chance to talk with Angel Ellis about the Threads event for college students, Beach Reach. At Beach Reach, students travel to Florida during spring break to help drunk student get home safely. Students get to take part by driving vans, praying together, or just talking with the students they are helping find their way home.
You can listen to the podcast episode here.
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As I mentioned in a previous post, LifeWay is beginning to offer some of our downloadable videos in standard definition. There are a number of things that go into the decision on how to encode these things, but the biggest question is always what we should offer in terms of resolution, bit rate, and file size. With standard definition, the resolution should be pretty well set: 640x480. Of course, we shoot with DV cam, so that resolution actually gets bumped up above standard def, to 720x480. And there's one project I'm working on that was shot in 16:9, so the resolution will be even higher (but not hi-def).So today I'm working with some hour-long sessions of a study we've previously released in low-res from Beth Moore.
Since we're making it standard def (720x480), I have to really tweak the bit rate to make sure that the quality is worth the extra money that we will be charging for the video. However, I have to make the file size small enough that a normal computer and internet connection can handle the download. LifeWay does not yet have a download manager... so I can't go over the top with file size.
The balance I'm at, for these files, is working at a 2000kbps variable bit rate. While this is less than I'd like it to be... it's just about the highest quality I can go and still make a feasible product. Why? At 2000kbps, the file sizes are hitting 1000MB. That's a big file to download. Real big. When I worked in the technology division, I had customers complain about 100MB files.
The source files I'm working with are averaging 75GB. So, being able to compress down to 1GB is actually an amazing feat (and one that is averaging 6 HOURS per encode... 12 files x 6 hours = 3 days. Thank you, Mr. Weekend).
So here's to an experiment in file sizes; is the quality of going from 360x240 at around 800kbps and 100MB worth 1000MB at 720x480 at 2000kbps?
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In case you didn't know, my wife is brilliant.
One of the things that so greatly attracts my soul to hers is the depth at which she processes and digests things of the spiritual. One of the great beauties of her wisdom is that for all the deconstruction of ideas and traditions that are going on in the church today, she is always seeking to reconstruct a better understanding.
I keep links to her blog on my sidebar, but I wanted to point out a post she just completed that I think is well worth anyone's time to read. Over the past few years, Ashley and I have been working through what "sin" means. A while back we had a conversation around the concept of works-based sin. Tonight she posted a great little reconstruction of what sin might mean for us. I encourage you to check it out and join the reconstruction process on her blog.
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On February 19th, HD-DVD died.
I bought my HD-DVD player in April of 2007. I have 16 HD-DVD movies (and the Heroes Season 1 set - which, honestly, was worth the cost of the player itself) compared to 8 Blu-Ray discs. Yes, I'm an early adoptor... and yes, I mourn the loss of HD-DVD.
The silver lining in this is that there is, in fact, a winner in the high-def wars. I had expected the battle to go on well into late 2009, with no clear winner until holiday 09. The problem with Blu-Ray winning, however, is that I don't think they've really won and that we have a different format war on our hands.
The real format war is physical media vs digital media...
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I completely messed up my first job at LifeWay. I was fresh out of college (10 days between graduation and day 1 on the job), had a creative position, and thought I was something special. The dress at LifeWay is business casual; I work ripped pants and often forgot to comb my hair. I kept odd hours. I was, for all intents and purposes, a mess.
One magical day, however, I surprised everyone and dressed up - suit coat and all. The reason? I had a meeting to go to, I had a goal I wanted to accomplish, and I was meeting people outside of my department who I hoped I would one day get to work with. In short, I looked forward to that meeting with Scott Allen and Ken Dean more than any other thing I had done up until that time.
I'm an odd bird in this: I love meetings. I seriously, absolutely, love meetings. One of my favorite moments of my job was when I realized that I had 16 meetings in one week. I get a thrill out of it because so many times I'm able to come out of a meeting and think, "we're changing things for the better." And, at LifeWay, changing things for the better means changing people's lives forever.
As such, as I continue to learn tips and tricks about how to have successful meetings, I'm going to share them here on my blog for the world to see. I hate that meetings have gotten such a bad rap. I always feel like the awkward kid a dance; I'm excited for another meeting when so many other people see them as nothing but a nuisance.
The most important key to a successful meeting is this: is the meeting necessary?
The reason people have such an aversion to meetings is because they've been to too many meetings that were pointless. There was no goal, there was no outcome and that was truly accomplished was a distraction from the daily work. Pile too many memories of wasted time, and meetings become something to dread and despise.
So what makes a meeting necessary? Why should one even bother with a meeting?
A meeting is essential when, simply put, two humans abilities are not enough. If two people can get it done, no meeting is needed; instead a simple conversation or working lunch will get the job done. If the work you're doing requires the input, abilities and acknowledgement of two others (or more... and less than say... six others), a well-planned meeting is the most effective tool.
A meeting is not strictly a scheduled time at a scheduled place with a set agenda; a meeting should be a literal meeting of the minds. A meeting should always result in an output that is greater than the sum of its parts. A meeting is where you get support, buy-in, and - sometimes - can disperse responsibility.
I have seen magical things happen at meetings. I've seen people invent entirely new marketplaces, I've seen people break down a "no, it's impossible" to "we can do that, just let me know what you want," but I've also seen dreams fall apart and uninformed decisions alter the course of good products.
I'm an optimist, I know. I go into every meeting with wide-eyed wonder and excitement about how my job might change in the next 45 minutes. Hopefully, over the course of these little tips, we can learn how to better control the expectations - and outcomes - of your meetings.
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Yesterday I got to work on my first podcast for the Threads team, a roundtable discussion on the Oscars. Normally the roundtable discussions are about ministry, culture, etc., but the group wanted to kick back and have a fun little movie chat.
Unfortunately, as I was getting ready for the podcast I realized a horrible truth: I had only seen three movies out of all of the nominations. So you can listen in as I desperately try to sound like I have a clue (though I did get to talk about Persepolis and Once).
I've found that I consume my media in a growing number of ways, completely at the sacrifice of actually going to the theatre. If I can have a better visual and auditory experience in my home, if I can make it a social even by having friends over (and being able to talk during the movie), if I can get a glass of water if I'm thirsty instead of paying $3.50 for a bottle of water... and the cost is the same ($20 for two tickets vs $15-20 for a Blu-Ray)... why wouldn't I just wait until it comes out for home release?
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The video teaching series for Mike Zigarelli's Influencing Like Jesus is now available for download on LifeWay.com.
This is pretty exciting for me because it's the first video project that I've seen all the way through. This has been the pilot project for my job and everything that's to come for me, video wise. With this project I was able to gather the information needed to make my workflow, get authorization for the correct software needs, and fully understand the process of getting the files up to our file server and connected with our online catalog.
The more exciting part about this series is it's a first for LifeWay in two ways:
(1) This is our first DRM-free video download product. This is an experiment for us to see how our customers will react to the files not being DRM'd. There's quite a bit of risk for us here, as there isn't a DVD companion piece to this. In the long run, I think this will serve as a great customer convience. From my customer service background I know the troubles that a lot of our customers have had with the current DRM set-up. Plus, this will allow our Mac users to download the files. I truly think this is a win-win situation, and I hope to get approval on more DRM-free content in the future.
(2) This is our first multi-tiered quality product. What I mean by that is the videos are available in three flavors:
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There are reasons throughout life that you may remember a meal.
I remember my first meal with Ashley at Caffeine when she flew in to visit back in 2004. I remember our feast at the Mad Platter from Kelley's generosity. I remember going to Chuck E. Cheese for me 18th's birthday. I remember many more...
all of those memories are surrounded with people or events or things of the like (which are very, incredibly, extremely important and is one of the keys to life, imho).
The meal I had last night, however, I'll remember for the taste.
Yes, it was that good. Ashley and I, for Valentine's decided to have a "fancy" night out, and went to the Standard Restaurant here in Nashville. And it was good.
I really don't know how to explain how good the meal was. It was full of flavor and quality. Ashley - who often does not like to eat red meat - loved the beef fillet. My bbq shrimp were the biggest pieces of shrimp i've ever had.
The meal was a five-course meal (plus bread). One of the courses was a cheese course, wherein I had a plate full of baked brie. I do mean a plate full. And who know that cheese went with roasted walnuts? But man, it was good.
I have only two complaints:
(1) The food was too good. Seriously. It makes you think that maybe you should eat fancy more often. I don't think we can afford the extravagence more than once a year, though. But it did help me understand food snobs a bit more. Seriously, this stuff made Applebee's seem like McDonald's.
(2) There was too much food. The Valentine's Day Special was a five-course meal... and it was a FULL five courses. I expected them to pull back on their portions so that you could make it through... but I had to send the majority of my entree's sides back. It was tormentuous, because the sides were so good... but there was no way I could push down any more.
So yes, the Standard Restaurant wins. It beat my taste buds into submission and became my own personal standard for what quality, tasteful food is.
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between now and then, i'll have to decide if $300 is worth having a dinosaur in my office. i'm leaning towards yes.
One of my first real friends here at LifeWay was Darrel Giradier. He was working for Fuge when I started working in the Fuge offices in 2002. I found a peer that I could talk with, brainstorm with, learn from, and look up to.
I first met Neil back then, too, when he came in to help write some of the creative elements for portions of the camp experience.
Now, they're both full-time employees of LifeWay, heading up the creative direction of the kids camps and student camps. These two are both so completely on target with the current trends in culture and marketplace needs for their respective demographics that, if you have any interest in the culture of student from grades 4-12, I highly recommend watching this video. These two are genuine experts in their field that don't get nearly enough time to share their knowledge.
(Seriously, guys - why aren't you speaking at conferences and such?)
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A few weeks ago, Ashley and I watched one of the most beautiful movies about relationships I've watched. The intimacy and character development between Glenn and Marketa in this movie is simply stunning. And the character development is almost as good as the music.
The movie is called "Once," and it's basically a vehicle for Glenn Hansard to play his music in a movie. The relationship portrayed in the movie is just quirky enough to be real, and is one of the few times I've been drawn into the discovery as well. The movie was able to show the hesitation and awkardness that comes with discovering the life of someone else so well, romantically or not.
The conflict of the relationship is handled so well, too.
The movie isn't a happy-ever-after romantic comedy, but it does such a good job at exploring relationships that I think anyone who care about discovering another person should take the time out to experience the music and story of Once.
(Ashley and I rented it via Amazon Unbox, and the quality was actually quite good! If you've got a computer hooked up to the TV or can stream it somehow, try watching it that way. The rental is only $2(!)... hooray for cheap, deep dates!)
(Seriously, only $2? It's worth it for the music alone. Glenn's music is simply stellar.)
(I should probably give Andy props for introducing me to Glenn's music... thanks, Andy!)
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We left our hope with Jesus, amidst the news that our dear friend Lazarus was sick. The truth of it is, Lazarus had died. He was sick, and Jesus just kind of... hung out. There was no rushing wind to save his life. There was no hope offered to the situation. Jesus did not react like anyone would have wanted Him to. When Jesus found out Lazarus was sick, he didn't not leave because he was busy with something else. he didn't not leave because it was a dangerous trip. He did not leave BECAUSE Lazarus was sick. The HCSB translates John 11:6 as:
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"So when He heard that he was sick, He stayed two more days in the place where He was."Mary and Martha wanted hope, they desired love. They made a plan - seek out Jesus - and he didn't not come to their add at a moment's notice. He waited. But then... then, there was hope:
“Our friend Lazarus has fallen asleep; but I am going there to wake him up.”John 11:11Jesus decides it is time to act. The disciples are nervous... it's a dangerous trip to visit their destination (Judea) because the last time they were there, there was an attempt to stone Jesus. They think they are going to wake up a sleeping man, but Christ clarifies: they are going to go and wake the dead.Jesus arrives, and is strong for Mary and Martha. He seeks out their faith, almost testing them. The time has come for Christ to heal his friend and - before he even gets to the actual tomb, as he comes upon the location, we have one of the most memorized passages in the Bible:
"Jesus wept."John 11:35What was His emotions at this point. Christ waited, letting his friend die. Christ's best friends essentially say they expected more of him ("if only you had been here"). And Christ, in his infinite wisdom, knew the danger, the excitement, and the torment He was about to unleash upon the crowd... and upon Lazarus.Lazarus was dead. Jesus knows what's on the other side of death... whether it is Abraham's Bosom or Paradise or Purgatory or nothing until the resurrection... Jesus knew what He was bringing Lazarus back from. Lazarus would breathe again, but he would also feel pain again, one day, ultimately, die again.
Then Jesus said, “Did I not tell you that if you believed, you would see the glory of God?”So they took away the stone. Then Jesus looked up and said, “Father, I thank you that you have heard me. I knew that you always hear me, but I said this for the benefit of the people standing here, that they may believe that you sent me.”When he had said this, Jesus called in a loud voice, “Lazarus, come out!” The dead man came out, his hands and feet wrapped with strips of linen, and a cloth around his face. Jesus said to them, “Take off the grave clothes and let him go.”John 11:40-44And that's the end. That's all we know. We don't have Lazarus thanking Jesus. We don't have Mary and Martha thanking Jesus. We don't have a recorded, personal moment of introspection or of joy or of life. Just "let him go."Why? Why is it like this?Jesus gave hope. He answered the prayer. I don't think he was simply healing a dead man. He was healing a family. He gave hope. I believe that's all He ever wanted to give.What about our friends Caleb and Joshua? They had hope of a promised land. Of twelve who went to scout the land, only these two believed it was theirs. They came to lead Isreal and the time was right to now take the land. They spied on the ihabitants, and found them afraid. They met a lady name Rahab, who would be included in the lineage of Christ. They had faith; and the people now had faith in God.The priests were sent first, carrying the Ark of the covenant. The were walking straight towards a flooding Jordan river. And once all their feet were in the water, not a moment before, the river stopped and the priests and warriors together crossed over to Jericho.
So when the people broke camp to cross the Jordan, the priests carrying the ark of the covenant went ahead of them. Now the Jordan is at flood stage all during harvest. Yet as soon as the priests who carried the ark reached the Jordan and their feet touched the water's edge, the water from upstream stopped flowing. It piled up in a heap a great distance away, at a town called Adam in the vicinity of Zarethan, while the water flowing down to the Sea of the Arabah (the Salt SeaThat is, the Dead Sea) was completely cut off. So the people crossed over opposite Jericho. The priests who carried the ark of the covenant of the LORD stood firm on dry ground in the middle of the Jordan, while all Israel passed by until the whole nation had completed the crossing on dry ground.Joshua 3:14-17Joshua and Caleb had hope. Mary and Martha were without their brother for four days. Joshua, Caleb, and the nation of Isreal were without their promised land for forty years.And what of Jesus? What hope did he find?When we left His struggle for hope, He had returned home and His childhood, adolescent, and twenty-somethings young adult friends offered Him no grand homecoming. They offered Him no faith or hope; just a lack of belief and a lack of miracles. Where did He find hope? Then Jesus' mother and brothers arrived. Standing outside, they sent someone in to call him.
32A crowd was sitting around him, and they told him, “Your mother and brothers are outside looking for you.” “Who are my mother and my brothers?” he asked.Then he looked at those seated in a circle around him and said, “Here are my mother and my brothers. Whoever does God's will is my brother and sister and mother.” Mark 3: 31-35, also Matt 12:46-50, also Luke 8:19-21.Christ's hopes, His family and loved ones were not his blood relatives, simply because they were blood they were His chosen family, the people who did God's will. Christ's hope was in his small group. His hope was in His community of believers. His hope was in His bride, the church.And their hope, our hope, is in him:
Then Thomas (called Didymus) said to the rest of the disciples, “Let us also go, that we may die with him.”John 11:16
When I was working for Fuge, I used to go around to all the major camp sites and help set up the lighting and sound at each location. It was during one of these trips that I got to meet a simply great band, Addison Road. Their music was unique, Jenny had a great voice, and they were genuinely caring people, living a great balance of life, rock & roll, and ministry. I still remember smiling at the young love so unashamedly shown between Jenny and her husband, Ryan.
A few months later I got to work on the youth VBS project for LifeWay. It was on a shoestring budget, but they wanted to do something cool and high-quality. I was able to connect with a few of my musician friends and we ended up putting together what was basically an indie Christian CD that was included in every member book for the students that year. One of the five groups that agreed to be a part of the project was, of course, Addison Road. Back then I knew they were on the brink of being break out stars.This week, Addison Road is the featured iTunes giveaway. All the millions of people who hit the iTunes Store this week will get a chance to download their new single, All That Matters, for free. Make sure you jump in there and download it as well; I promise you, they're an awesome band.
And, as a throwback, here's the video that Jeff Lyons shot for the VBS disc with the band.
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A while back, I got to meet with David Webb about the B&H pitching process. Our conversation back then really turned into a "get-to-know-you" meeting, and we talked a lot about the Christian Fiction market, what his job was, who some of the new authors were, etc etc. The information he was sharing - as well as his passion for Christian Fiction - seemed to me to be something that anyone interested in Christian fiction might want to know. How often do you get a chance to sit down with one of the top guys in the business?
The video is also a lot of fun because you get a peek into David's mind as to how the whole process works, and how involved an editor might be in a story (David talks about how one time a story really needed a character to die...). David also talks a bit about upcoming books by authors Jamie Carie, Leanna Ellis, and Rebecca Seitz.
So, without further ado, here's a video conversation with David Webb.
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encouraged by finding the right formula and the brief distraction of writing a blog post, i put on the most sugar-y sweet happy music I have, and went to town to solve the problem.
i realized that it was similar to a problem I had posted to our class discussion board earlier in the week, so i check it... and noticed that I had done root-mean square (the forecast check to determine how accurate your forcast is) wrong. So I happily fixed it. Yeah, score extra points before it's graded.
so I get back to working at the problem at hand... and noticed something else.
when you're doing an exponential smoothing forecast, you have several elements. let's take a look at the formula:
Ft+1 =wAt + (1 - w)Ft
Essentially, Ft+1 is what you're solving for... it's the forecast for the next year. For example, you might be trying to find what the forecast would be for the year 2000. To find it you have three elements:
1) w: w is for a weight that you choose, between 0 and 1. The point of this weight is to determine how much "weight" you're giving to the forecast from real data and forecasted data.
2) At: a is for the Actual amount from the year you are using to solve the forecast. If you were trying to forecast for 2000, you would use the actual data for the year 1999.
3) Ft: f is for the Forecast you previously did to solve the current forecast. Again, if you were trying to forecast for 2000, you would use the forecast data for the year 1999.
so what did i do wrong?
well, when you have a set of actual data, you start at the beginning and forecast through all the years you have leading up to the coming year that you're going to forecast for. you do this so in the end you can check the root-mean square and find out how accurate your forecast is. well, you have to start somewhere so, to get the very first Ft, you just take an average of all the real data you have.
when i originally solved the problem, I used the average every time instead of the previous forecast.
but, that wasn't the end of my troubles.
because of the way I wrote out the problem, using a grid, i ended up using the WRONG FORMULA. i was doing this:
Ft+1 =wAt+1 + (1 - w)Ft
sigh. so... i finally found all my errors (as far as I can tell) my fourth time through. the good thing about this is I'll never forget this experience and the frustration, but continual excitement at "getting it right". It's amazing that you can think you've got a problem right four times...
of course, from a psychological point of view, it makes you second guess yourself a lot and wonder how you got it wrong so many times. in something like this i have two options:
1) decide in my mind that i just am never going to understand it
2) decide in my mind that after four tries, my answer is correct and i have mastery over the subject (which is why i wrote this post... so i could prove to myself that I understand the concepts). if my answer is still wrong... at least I know my answer is more correct than my version 4 times ago.
which would you choose?
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My Managerial Economics in a Global Economy has been a fun venture so far. I'm enjoying getting to flex the math muscles of my brain that haven't been used in several years. Tonight, however, was a lesson in humility and common-sense stupidity.
I have just spent the last hour working on this problem:
Using the index (with 1985 = 100) on housing starts in the United States per year from 1986 to 1997 given in the table below, forecast the index for 1998 using a three year and a five year moving average. Which of your estimates is better if the actual index of housing starts in the United States for 1998 is 163?
I simply couldn't make the formula I was using help me with the problem. I was working through a trend projection formula. This isn't a trending question; it's a smoothing technique using moving averages.
I was four pages off in my book.
This past hour has really been a cathartic process for me. About 45 minutes in I was tempted to give up and just worry about it later. I persevered, reread all the info BEFORE the page with the trend projection formula, reread the entire previous chapter, and was just plain frustrated.
The fact of the matter is I've always done really well in school. I've always gotten good grades, great test scores, and generally can learn things pretty quickly. I can honestly say that I have never in my life been stumped on a question like this for more than 5-10 minutes (by "question like this" I mean one where I should be able to solve it, and have all the pertinent information available to me). It's not often in life that we get to really feel a new experience.
At this moment I'm feeling very humbled. I've often relied on my intellect and gotten frustrated with people who don't want to learn new things... or that think they can't.
There was a brief moment in this hour-long misdirection of formulas that I wondered what the rest of the course would be like... could I handle having to process through hour-long problems all semester long. Would it be worth it, or could I take a different course? Could I, should I, give up?
It was a taste of intellectual defeat... and I didn't like it. But the alternative, giving up, would have been so very easy and appealing. And, ultimately, all I won myself from pushing through the issue was humility, a feeling of ignorance, and missing out on sitting on the couch, watching a movie with my beautiful wife. I can see how giving up not bothering with the problem would be more appealing and, in many ways, seem more beneficial.
This rests on my mind at the age of 27. I couldn't imagine the impact it might have on a 7 year old, or a 17 year old, or all the years in between.
I wonder when my children will hit this kind of wall. I wonder when the next time I'll have the answer just out of reach, only to learn that my own choices kept me from seeing it.
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